FIBA Basketball...It's FAAAAAN-TASTIC!

A few points to make about the FIBA tournament and such in Las Vegas...

1) Mike Miller can pretty much hit whatever shot he gets. Who knows how many he'll actually get, but he's a reasonable lock to hit it.

2) The longer shot clock allows Bill Walton to veer further off course in his ramblings. Somehow, somewhere in the 3rd period, he segued from the Beijing Games to the importance of clean air and water. John Saunders was not amused.

3) Tiago Splitter is going to be really, really good in the NBA. Of course, he's getting schooled fairly regularly by Amare Stoudamire, Dwight Howard and Tyson Chandler, but he's also holding his own and even came up with an impressive block against Amare. Another year or two in Europe and he'll be a solid contributer in the NBA.

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The 2007 NBA Draft

This piece is intended to address the needs of various teams in a bubble, as though their rosters were fixed and no trades were allowed, not that either of these things are remotely close to true. While adopting a method based on college rules (willful shells of ignorance about real conditions/fixed rosters) may seem illogical, and probably is, it does make predicting the logical order of things a hell of a lot easier. We’re not saying that this is the way things should be; just that if teams were actually picking to address their needs, this is how we would go about doing it. Simple enough, right? So, no predictions on the inevitable chaos and bad decisions that will hit the draft as soon as trades start being made or Atlanta starts picking (possibly at the same point); just an analysis of who needs what.

1. Portland
Needs: SF, time
Could upgrade: PG, PF/C

Portland’s starting SF is Darius Miles. We’ll assume that needs no further elaboration. Besides the erstwhile Mr. Miles, Portland has a surprisingly good young roster, much like Chicago’s. The two spots that could use an upgrade are PF/C and point guard, filled respectively by Zach Randolph and Jarrett Jack. Neither of these are bad players by any means- Randolph just had a big year, and should continue to put up similar numbers for as long as he is able to stay healthy and out of jail (probably similar lengths of time). In a normal draft, or even in this draft with a pick other than #1, Randolph stays. There’s nothing wrong with Jarrett Jack, either- he’s a pretty good point guard. He’s a step below the others in the conference, but that’s because the position is loaded: Steve Nash, Deron Williams, Chris Paul, Allen Iverson, Tony Parker, etc. There probably isn’t a better PG next year than Jack in the draft, although Conley will probably wind up being better than him.

So what’s a team with a glaring need at SF, the #1 pick, and the best SF to enter the draft in god-knows-how-many years available to do?

Easy. Take Greg Oden.



2. Seattle
Needs: C, PG, and if Rashard Lewis leaves, SF; a new arena, city, or owner
Could upgrade: PF

If Portland does wind up picking Durant, Seattle will have completely wasted first-round picks three years in a row on young and inexperienced centers, before taking a fourth young and inexperienced center that nullifies the first three. Obviously, there are some differences between Robert Swift, Johan Petro, Mohammed Sene, and Greg Oden, beyond the fact that Oden looks as old as any two of them combined. It’s possible that any of the three Seattle centers could develop into a decent player, but none of them meet that standard yet, or even have much in the way of trade value. Seattle’s PG is Luke Ridnour or Earl Watson, depending on which is playing less poorly. None of the PGs available are immediately better than either of those two, although Conley and possibly others will be better than both. The PF slot belongs to Chris Wilcox and Nick Collison, and while neither are dominant, neither are bad. Rashard Lewis’s contract status makes the SF slot an open question- if he re-signs, they’re in good shape, and if not, they’re starting Mickael Gelabale. Given that their most likely pick plays his position, I’m guessing Lewis doesn’t re-sign, or signs only to be traded.

The pick, then? Kevin Durant.

It is worth mentioning here that there are obvious clashes here between the CW and the needs of the two teams deciding between the two best prospects and years. The CW has Oden going first, and Oden is undeniably a great pick- he’s likely to be the best center in the league for the next ten years. Durant is a less safe pick in that he plays a less essential position (this could be debated, but it is worth noting that the only championship teams of the last 20-or-so years lacking a dominant center were Jordan’s Bulls teams, while many of those teams lacked a dominating small forward) and faces a steeper physical curve than Oden, but it’s clear to anyone who’s seen him play that he’s going to be a major star in the league. Better than Oden? It’s possible. It’s unlikely that Portland will take Durant first because he’s a better fit for the team, because Kevin Pritchard doesn’t want to be The Guy Who Passed on Greg Oden for the rest of his life. But it wouldn’t be an inexcusable pick by any means.

3. Atlanta
Needs: A new GM, badly; everything but SF and maybe SG
Could upgrade: See above

We don’t have to dwell on the incompetence of Billy Knight here, because that topic has been both covered and mined for humor extensively -- but I would note that last year’s pick at #5, Shelden Williams, would be sharing time on the bench with Shavlik Randolph if you made an NBA team entirely out of former Duke players. Not what you look for from a #5 pick who played 4 years in college, especially with the consensus best player in the draft (Brandon Roy) still on the board. For humor value, the best thing Knight could possibly do for us is to pick Corey Brewer (another 6’8 athletic swingman, although a bit more promising than some of his other picks), and then fly to Detroit to cackle maniacally as he and Matt Millen share a bath of virginal blood while lighting cigars with hundred-dollar bills. Unfortunately, we probably won’t see that.

The most glaring needs for Atlanta are probably center and point guard. Unlike their Portland and Seattle counterparts, the starters in Atlanta don’t get their abilities defended here, although Zaza Pachulia is surprisingly decent. So the pick comes down to Al Horford or Mike Conley, Jr, both of whom seem likely to end up being good. Horford is more likely to help right away, but does Atlanta have anything to play for right away? They’ve sucked for years, and they’re going to continue sucking until someone arrives in their front office who can turn some of their assets into a real team, rather than a 6’8 experimental collective. Either of these guys would be a step in the right direction, as neither is 6’8, and both play a real position – the one deciding factor in which one to pick is that Atlanta has the #11 pick as well, where there is likely to be a serviceable point guard available (but less likely to be a serviceable center). In imaginary bubble-world, Horford is the logical pick.

The pick: Al Horford

4. Memphis
Needs: Help
Could upgrade: PG, PF, C if Gasol is traded

Memphis is awful, and will continue to be awful for the foreseeable future. This is not entirely a bad thing, as they’re an extremely young team- over half their roster has been in the league 3 years or less, and several of their veterans are guys like Brian Cardinal, Chucky Atkins, and Stromile Swift -- not exactly players that you expect to see big contributions from, let alone development. They have a very good center in Pau Gasol, who is understandably miserable about living in Memphis and playing on a team that’s going to take years to get anywhere, assuming that there’s somewhere for them to go. Gasol seems likely to be traded, which is fine if they manage to get picks and good young players for him, and not fine if they get only mediocre veterans and expiring contracts. While many of the young players on Memphis aren’t going to amount to much, Gay, Warrick, and Alexander Johnson have a shot at being decent, and Kyle Lowry looked promising before getting hurt early in the year. If Memphis is going to use Rudy Gay as a shooting guard, their most glaring need is going to be inside at the 4 and 5 slots, which means that the best pick would be someone like Joakim Noah, Brandan Wright, or Yi Jianlian. None of those picks is a sure thing. Noah’s the most ready to contribute of the three – while he’ll never be an offensive force, he’ll be a good defender and rebounder. I’m not sold on Brandan Wright ever being a great player, or even necessarily a very good one. He’s weak and diffident most of the time, and while he’s very athletic, he’s not a good defender. Memphis already employs the older version of this player in Stromile Swift, who’s probably not the best example for Mr. Wright as he develops. And finally, Yi is an unknown – he could turn into something special, and he could end up being a spectacular bust. Memphis doesn’t have another pick in this draft, which means that they can’t afford to miss unless they’re able to trade into another pick or two. Because of this, my guess is that they’ll go for Brandan Wright, as the player generally seen as having the highest ceiling and the most offensive firepower. As they’re pretty well set for blocks and rebounds, my personal pick would be Yi – it’s not like they’re going to lose any fans if he underachieves or takes a while to develop.

The pick: Brandan Wright

5. Boston
Needs: PG, SF, C, star power
Could upgrade: Any of the above

Boston’s similar to Memphis in that they’re a very young team filled out with crappy veterans (Brian Scalabrine, Michael Olowokandi, Theo Ratliff’s contract) and one star, Paul Pierce. Some of their young players are very good (Al Jefferson), and most of them fall into that uncomfortable area where they are neither very good nor totally devoid of value, but none are likely to develop into stars. At #5, there’s one and possibly two potential stars still available, which is probably the biggest need for Boston right now – like LA, the Boston media and fan base isn’t going to be happy with the disorganized gaggle of undeveloped, questionable talent that makes up the current state of the team. The best pick here has both the skill (primarily defense) to help immediately, and a high enough ceiling to develop into a great player in the future – Corey Brewer. He may not turn into Scottie Pippen – that’s a lot of development – but he’s further along at this stage of his career than Pippen was, and shares many of the same traits.

The pick: Corey Brewer

6. Milwaukee
Needs: ?
Could upgrade: PG, SF or PF

The SF or PF depends on whether or not Charlie Villanueva qualifies as a SF or PF. He’d probably be a better fit at SF, but the Bucks employ Andrew Bogut and a bunch of stiffs in the middle. Bogut is most comfortable playing center, which means that there are a lot of large people being paid to not play center, or to play power forward poorly. PG doesn’t require an upgrade if Mo Williams stays, but if they’re going to lose him to free agency, their backup is…Earl Boykins? The options, then, are: paying/overpaying Mo Williams and drafting a forward, or letting Williams walk and drafting a point guard. Williams is young and competent, and thereby worth keeping, so the Bucks go big, where their best options are Joakim Noah and Yi Jianlian. Noah doesn’t provide much offense, while Yi will take time to develop, which is a special code for not providing much offense and being a defensive liability. Given that the Bucks could actually be pretty good next year (Redd, Villanueva, Bogut, Williams, and someone else isn’t a bad team in the Eastern conference), it makes more sense to me to pick a player that can contribute, even if he’s not going to score a lot. Take Noah, and try not to get too frustrated when he and Bogut keep passing the ball back and forth when they’re both 6 feet from the basket.

The pick: Joakim Noah

7. Minnesota
Needs: PG, C, bench
Could upgrade: SF

Looking at Minnesota’s roster, it’s unclear to me how they aren’t the worst team in the league. Kevin Garnett is still a great player, but he has jack shit around him (with the possible exception of Randy Foye) and plays in the tough conference. Rather than trading Garnett for draft picks and expiring contracts in order to rebuild, the league should insist on forcing a trade exclusively for expiring contracts (Minnesota’s used to not getting to draft anyone, anyway) and then simply disband the team and move the Grizzlies to Minnesota, where their name makes at least a little more sense and people will pay to watch them. Unfortunately, this isn’t going to happen. Recognizing that the Wolves are going to suck and continue sucking, then, the logical thing to do would be to take a player who’s going to take some time to develop, meaning Yi or Mike Conley. In an ideal universe where foreign players all live up to their potential, Chad Ford is an unfailing oracle, and Nikolos Tshittykvili and Darko Milicic are superstars of epic proportions, Yi would turn into the second coming of Kevin Garnett. If the Wolves take Yi, he might learn a few things as Garnett’s understudy before KG embraces free agency like a drowning pervert clutches a blow-up doll. In a world where Kevin McHale still thinks there’s a chance (that would be this one, in case you were counting), he needs to take someone who will throw Garnett the ball, rather than someone who will ask him constantly for pointers in broken English. Conley, then, is the logical choice -– and a backcourt of Conley and Randy Foye is going to look pretty good in a few years.

The pick: Mike Conley, Jr.

8. Charlotte
Needs: Talent, SG, SF if Gerald Wallace leaves, time
Could upgrade: Actually, hard to say. PF?

Charlotte has actually done a pretty good job of stockpiling good young players. Okafor and Felton both look like legitimate starters, Sean May’s not bad, and Gerald Wallace is good – although that isn’t quite as helpful if he leaves as a free agent, which is a likely outcome. While Adam Morrison doesn’t look like he’s going to amount to much, he might be a useful bench player if there are enough quality people to play him behind. As a young team with few expectations, again it makes sense to take the best available player and wait for them to develop. If they’re going to lose Wallace, that player is probably Jeff Green; if not, it’s probably Yi. Either of these is actually a good choice; although the lack of high expectations for this team means that I’d lean towards taking Yi, whose payoff is potentially much higher than Jeff Green’s.

The pick: Yi Jianlian

9. Chicago
Needs: C/PF
Could upgrade: Frontcourt depth

The Bulls are pretty well set at the guard and SF slots with some combination of Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Andres Nocioni, Thabo Sefolosha, and Chris Duhon. However, they could use some help up front, where Tyrus Thomas is the only promising or competent player on the team (no, Ben Wallace doesn’t count – he was overrated before having a shitty year, and now is simply overpaid and exposed.) This poses something of a problem, as the top centers and power forwards from this draft are already off the board. Spencer Hawes is still available, and is highly regarded for some reason, but I don’t see John Paxson drafting the second coming of Chris Kaman and fucking up his team’s uptempo style. The players left on the board that could help, then, are Jeff Green, Al Thornton, and maybe Julian Wright. If the Bulls are willing to accept that they’re not going to win a championship next year with Ben Wallace as their center, and therefore he should essentially be written off until his contract can be traded, they can afford to take a guy who may develop like Wright. If they’re trying for next year (which isn’t a bad idea, although I think their ceiling is the finals), they’re better off taking Green or Thornton to help right away. As Nocioni is likely to leave in free agency, the ideal fit would be a backup SF/PF type with some scoring skills, which fits Thornton perfectly. Jeff Green may end up being a better player – he’s likely to end up as the next Shane Battier – but he’s less physical and offensively talented than Thornton is at this stage, so that pick makes more sense to me.

The pick: Al Thornton

10. Sacramento
Needs: Everything but SG and SF
Could upgrade: See above

Sacramento is facing a long downhill slide, as their roster is basically Kevin Martin, Ron Artest, and a whole lot of no future. Even this requires some qualification, because it is by no means clear that Ron Artest’s future is with Sacramento – there’s a roughly equal chance that Ron’s future includes early retirement and fun with Latrell Sprewell (I’d pay to watch a TV show dedicated to their daily activities), a questionable rap career, a trip to jail, or a new life devoted to swimming and communicating with dolphins. Due to this uncertainty, Sacramento should be committed to taking the best available player, who at this point is probably Jeff Green. However, there’s also the potential to take Spencer Hawes and have Brad Miller teach him how to be the next Brad Miller. The Kings have had a long tradition (as far as these things go) of building their offense around an unathletic white center with good passing skills and a decent jump shot, and that description fits Mr. Hawes pretty well. They might be better off holding out for Kevin Love next year, but for the sake of a consistent team strategy, I’ll suggest they take Hawes.

The pick: Spencer Hawes

11. Atlanta
Needs: See previous list, subtract PF.
Could upgrade: See above.

I didn’t do this on purpose, but the best player left on the board is an athletic 6’9 swingman, and Atlanta needs a point guard. I can’t believe they’d actually do that, though. It’s certainly possible, but that would be just too perfect. There are potentially good point guards available here, and that’s probably the direction they’ll go. The two best PG prospects after Conley are Acie Law IV of Texas A&M and Javaris Crittendon of Georgia Tech, who each have their merits and flaws. In Law’s case, he’s not an exceptional passer, and in Crittendon’s case, he’s coming out after a shaky first year in which he accomplished nothing and made a lot of bad decisions. Two mitigating factors in Crittendon’s favor make him the likely pick, though – he’s a little taller (Law is 6’3, Crittendon 6’4), and he’s from Atlanta. If I were the GM of the Hawks (not actually a job I would want, mind you), I’d take Law – he’s not likely to be a star, but he’s a better point guard than Speedy Claxton. As far as I’m concerned, Crittendon is the most likely player in the lottery to end up as a total bust – while he has plenty of potential, he also has a large ego, a long development curve, and a hometown disadvantage. The last thing an 18-year old kid with a questionable work ethic and decision-making skills needs is money, an entourage that doesn’t even have to leave home to get him into trouble, and a city like Atlanta in which he can develop his talents.

Naturally, the Hawks will take him over Law. If they don’t take Green.

The pick: Javaris Crittendon

12. Philadelphia
Needs: SG, PF
Could upgrade: C

Philly could take a 2 or a 3 to pair with Andre Iguodala, who seems like the only young player on the Sixers likely to amount to much. Andre Miller is a pretty good point guard, especially by conference standards, but beyond the two of them the Sixers are a collection of overpaid role players. Of special note is the frontcourt, which is loaded with detritus – not only do they employ Shavlik Randolph, but surrounding him on the depth chart are the likes of Joe Smith, Steven Hunter, Alan Henderson, and Samuel Dalembert. Dalembert is a shot-blocker and nothing more, and that’s the nicest thing that you can say about any of the five. Unfortunately, while the Sixers badly need help up front, there’s not much available at this level. They could reach to take Jason Smith of Colorado State or pick a foreign center like Tiago Splitter, who wouldn’t help for a couple of years, or they could take Jeff Green, who is inexplicably still on the board. (Note: this is where bubble world fails. Someone would have traded up to pick him by now.) If Green is still available, he’s a great pick – and there are plenty of large people with rudimentary skills available later in the draft.

The pick: Jeff Green

13. New Orleans
Needs: SG
Could upgrade: Bench, SF (?)

New Orleans has a couple of good young players in Tyson Chandler and David West, and one of the top five point guards in the league in Chris Paul. Their veterans and role players aren’t great, but if everyone’s healthy they aren’t a bad team. Peja Stojakovic missed most of last year to injury, which is not an uncommon trait for him, and his absence exposed a lack of outside shooting. The pick, then, will address this concern, and there are two decent choices available in USC’s Nick Young and Vanderbilt’s Derrick Byars. Byars is a little bit bigger and more physical, but isn’t a great defender and may be too slow to play shooting guard; Young may be a little less consistent right now but probably has a higher ceiling than Byars. Young, being the more natural shooting guard, is probably the better pick here. He’s not a guaranteed success, but he has fewer risks and liabilities than Byars and probably more potential to improve.

The pick: Nick Young

14. L.A. Clippers
Needs: PG
Could upgrade: Bench, SF

The Clippers shouldn’t have to be worrying about a point guard after taking Shaun Livingston two years ago, but the last we saw of Mr. Livingston, he was closer to joining Joe Theismann in the booth than he was running a team. If he recovers from his horrific knee injury, Livingston may very well become an elite point guard, but he seems more likely to end up like Jay Williams of Duke/Chicago from a few years back. Sam Cassell has been running the point in L.A. for the last couple of years, but Sam I Am is old, and not even his giant testicles dance will disguise that forever. With the exception of Elton Brand, the Clippers’ other players are neither very good or inadequate. Corey Maggette is a good option off of the bench, but has wanted out of L.A. forever, and will eventually get there, and after him there’s a steep drop in terms of talent. Realistically, the Clippers could take pretty much anyone and expect to get better, but the best pick is probably another point guard in case Livingston doesn’t recover. Acie Law has a similar game to a younger Sam Cassell, and would be an excellent replacement.

The pick: Acie Law IV

15. Detroit
Needs: C, PG if Billups leaves
Could upgrade: Bench

Detroit’s got a talented if elderly starting five, but they’re not very deep. Assuming that they re-sign Chauncey Billups, they could go for either guard or forward depth, but with what’s available at the 15th pick, they’re probably better off taking a guard – preferably one with some PG skills. The list of competent combo guards in the draft is basically Nick Young and Rodney Stuckey of Eastern Washington, so the Pistons will take Stuckey. Stuckey’s college game was similar to Lindsey Hunter’s, so he might learn a thing or two from the old guys on the bench.

The pick: Rodney Stuckey

16. Washington
Needs: SG, C
Could upgrade: Bench

Washington’s biggest need is probably at center, where they have two stiffs (Brendan Haywood and Etan Thomas) who not only aren’t very good, but also hate each other’s guts and routinely get into fistfights in the locker room. Along with the ever-quotable Gilbert Arenas, this makes for a funny team to observe from afar, but humor value is less appreciated by both fan bases and ownership. While it might be possible to upgrade the two crappy centers who hate each other to two crappy centers who don’t hate each other, the better solution might be to find one decent center who doesn’t hate anyone. At this point in the draft, there are none available – although there may be some help overseas, where the Wizards have turned for talent in recent years. The best overseas center talent, by most measures, is Brazil’s Tiago Splitter, who plays in Spain. Splitter has contract issues that would prevent him from playing right away, but is generally expected to be a solid if unspectacular center when he does make it over. The second option is to upgrade the shooting guard position, where Jarvis Hayes is not commanding many double teams, but SG seems like less of a priority when Arenas and Caron Butler are handling outside shooting duties, especially given that Arenas doesn’t pass the ball very much.

The pick: Tiago Splitter


17. New Jersey
Needs: PF, bench
Could upgrade: see above

Picking at 17, New Jersey’s not going to grab a starting power forward, so the logical pick is to look for a solid bench contributor at one of their weaker positions – probably 4 and 2. If New Jersey was smart and didn’t overpay Vince Carter to re-sign with them (unlikely), they would be best off looking for a shooting guard; even with Carter coming back, they’d still probably benefit most from a 2/3 type. Jason Kidd is the oldest of their three stars, but Kidd has a potentially good backup in Marcus Williams, taken last year. Richard Jefferson is the youngest, but also the least valuable and most likely to be traded. The Nets are in an uncomfortable position where they’re likely to be reasonably good over the next few years without ever achieving greatness, and that seems unlikely to change no matter who they pick here or who they trade for. Given those parameters and their apparent needs, Julian Wright seems like the best fit here. Other potentially good choices would be Jason Smith of Colorado State or possibly Derrick Byars of Vanderbilt, but Wright has the best long-term potential and size of the three.

The pick: Julian Wright

18. Golden State
Needs: C, bench
Could upgrade: PF, SF (?)

The fact that Golden State is running Nellieball makes determining their needs slightly more complicated than usual. They’re clearly in need of some competent size to complement Andris Biedrins, but there’s not much out there that fits. They’ll probably lose Matt Barnes in free agency, but that doesn’t seem like it should be a big deal. A guard rotation of Baron Davis, Monta Ellis, Jason Richardson, and Stephen Jackson is hard to find fault with. This is a good team, and a fun one – whoever they pick needs to be athletic enough to complement not one, but both of those traits. There are two picks available that potentially fit here; Thaddeus Young of Georgia Tech and Jason Smith of Colorado State. Young, by all accounts, has the potential to be a star, but as with his freshman teammate Crittendon, I see him as having a high bust potential too. Ordinarily, the #18 pick would be a great place to take a risk on a potential star player, but when there are other good options out there, the risk may not actually be worth it. Jason Smith is born to play in Nellie’s system. He’s not a traditional center, despite being a 7’ shot-blocker, but he’s athletic, fast, and has a good outside shot – something like a cross between Mehmet Okur and Marcus Camby, without necessarily being as good as either. On a team that didn’t know how to use him, Smith’s talents would be wasted – but Nelson’s a great coach for unusual talents.

The pick: Jason Smith

19. L.A. Lakers
Needs: PF, bench
Could upgrade: PG

Obviously, the team needs here are going to change if Kobe Bryant gets traded for 2/3 of the good players on Chicago, but I don’t see that happening. The Lakers are in an uncomfortable place, where they have neither the assets to rebuild or win anything. It’s not quite Kobe and the 11 dwarfs, as Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum, and Luke Walton have some value, but this team isn’t getting much offense that doesn’t come from Kobe one way or another. Jordan Farmar might turn into a decent point guard, although he isn’t there yet; Andrew Bynum will be a good center, and he’s pretty close, and then there’s a lot of filler material. In particular, the PF spot is weak, with the options being Odom out of position, Brian Cook, and Ronny Turiaf. The Lakers also have no decent backup guards, unless Farmar is counted as the backup of Smush Parker, in which case the Lakers need a better point guard as well. At this point in the draft, we’re out of good options. Thaddeus Young is the most highly regarded prospect on the board, but has a lot of developing to do or not do, and plays the same position as Odom and Walton. The inside options do not represent a clear upgrade from Cook, Turiaf, or the pair of stiffs on the bench (Kwame Brown and Chris Mihm) – even Kwame Brown has to be better than Josh McRoberts. Besides McRoberts, the big guys worthy of consideration are Marc Gasol (in Spain, will require some adjustment, looked slow and uncoordinated in his last trip over), Aaron Gray (Chris Mihm 2.0), Sean Williams (Puff puff pass), and an assortment of other suspect talents (mostly unknown Slavs, but we can include Kyle Visser, Herbert Hill, Jermareo Davidson, and Nick Fazekas here as well). The best guards available are probably Morris Almond of Rice (a tall relative unknown), Daequan Cook of Ohio State (probably a year or two away from contributing much), Marco Belinelli of Italy, and Arron Afflalo of UCLA. From this pile of shitty options, I give the Lakers Afflalo. I don’t expect him to do very well at the NBA level – he’s a poor man’s Dennis Scott at best, without the self-portrait tattoos – but he is from LA and played with Farmar, which may be worth something. This isn’t a great pick, but I can’t see the Lakers drafting any of the big guys, and Afflalo is probably the most ready to contribute next year of the shooting guards on the board.

The pick: Arron Afflalo

20. Miami
Needs: Youth, depth, PG
Could upgrade: Most positions other than SG and C could be improved, but not at this point in the draft.

Without Dwyane Wade, Miami is old and not very good. With him, they’re old and mediocre. The best plan here is probably to take the best player available and wait for the rest of the team to retire. The best choices left on the board who don’t play the same position as Wade are probably Thaddeus Young and Derrick Byars; Young will give the Heat a better chance of getting a good draft pick next year by being slow to develop, and probably has slightly more potential. He’ll do.

The pick: Thaddeus Young

21. Philadelphia
Needs: See above
Could upgrade: See above

Philadelphia is at this point looking for size, so they’re left picking between Gasol, McRoberts, Gray, and Sean Williams. Interestingly enough, they already have two of these players on their team: Sam Dalembert is a slightly larger and less criminally inclined Sean Williams, and Shavlik Randolph is Josh McRoberts’s older and marginally less skilled brother. I think that Marc Gasol is probably the better pick, but the Sixers like big soft white guys from Duke, so they’ll take McRoberts.

The pick: Josh McRoberts

22. Charlotte
Needs: See above
Could upgrade: See above

With their second pick, Charlotte should be looking for a shooting guard. Of the available choices, Marco Belinelli is coming off a disappointing year in the Italian league and faces some transitional issues, Daequan Cook is young, streaky, and probably a couple of years away from reaching his full potential (which could be good, or might not be. Hard to say.), and Morris Almond has spent his college career playing on an inferior team against inferior competition. All three are difficult to project, but I think that Almond’s the most likely to be successful. The Bobcats have had a tendency to pick players from winning teams, so we might expect them to lean towards Cook, but he was basically a non-factor in the tournament last year – so he doesn’t get any points over Almond for that.

The pick: Morris Almond

23. New York
Needs: SF
Could upgrade: SG, PG, bench

The Knicks have a large number of talented but flawed players; a team whose roster looks a lot better on paper than it actually is. The roster is a mixture of overrated veterans (Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis, Quentin Richardson, etc), not-very-good veterans (Jamal Crawford, Jerome James, Jared Jeffries, Malik Rose, Kelvin Cato), and young players who would make a great bench team if the people in front of them were better (Channing Frye, Renaldo Balkman, David Lee, etc). With the personnel they have, the Knicks are unlikely to get much better or worse until the dead weight at the top of the roster leaves, retires, or gets bought out of their contracts by an increasingly frustrated James Dolan. They could also be traded for more overrated players with bad contracts, which has been Isiah Thomas’s strategy for years, but we’ve seen how well that works. The position most likely to need help in the near future is SF or SG, but whoever gets drafted is going to be buried for at least a year behind the pile of damaged goods above. The logical pick here would be Daequan Cook, but the rumor mill has the Knicks drafting Wilson Chandler of DePaul, a talented but not-yet-achieving small forward. The Knicks surprised everyone by taking Renaldo Balkman last year around this slot, so the rumors are credible.

The pick: Wilson Chandler

24. Phoenix
Needs: Bench
Could upgrade: Backup PG, C, SF

Phoenix seems likely to make a trade, which may change their needs substantially – but they’re still likely to focus on drafting the most athletic, versatile player available. While he hasn’t gotten a lot of national attention leading up to the draft, Boston College’s Jared Dudley seems like an ideal fit for the Phoenix system. Dudley had more of a power game in college than his frame seems likely to allow in the pros, but he showed a much more versatile skill set last year. It’s also worth mentioning that his former teammate Craig Smith was similarly undervalued, and Smith had a very promising first year with Minnesota. I’m willing to bet that Dudley has a better career than many of the people taken ahead of him.

The pick: Jared Dudley

25. Utah
Needs: SG
Could upgrade: Backup C

Utah is a very good team that’s going to improve next year regardless of who they draft, but their one weak spot is SG. They had clearly the best draft of any team last year with Deron Williams and Paul Millsap in the second round, but their second pick of the first round, Ronnie Brewer, didn’t play very much. While he may still have potential that we haven’t seen yet, the largest hole on the Utah roster is at SG/SF, and they’d ideally take someone who could help right away. The best available shooting guard is probably Daequan Cook, but I doubt that he and Jerry Sloan would have much in common – a better pick might be Wisconsin’s Alando Tucker. Tucker has been criticized for not having a position at the NBA level – as a 6’5 forward who gets most of his points within 15 feet, he’ll have a hard time scoring in the same way – but he is a good defender and passer, and with Okur shooting from the outside, Utah’s offense has room for an unconventional player like Tucker.

The pick: Alando Tucker

26. Houston
Needs: PF
Could upgrade: Backup C, bench

Houston traded Juwan Howard to Minnesota for Mike James, which may reduce their dependence on Rafer Alston, but which opens a pretty large hole at an already weak PF position. Due to their dependence on Yao Ming, the Rockets are stuck playing a slow style (why’d they fire Jeff Van Gundy again?), so they’re not necessarily going to need a really athletic power forward. Nevada’s Nick Fazekas is a great pure shooter at 6’11, but may be the slowest player in the draft – he’d be a great asset to a slow team and totally useless to an athletic one. Fazekas will probably be available in the second round, but the Rockets don’t have a second-round pick this year, so I’m giving him to them now under bubble world rules.

The pick: Nick Fazekas

27. Detroit
Needs: See above
Could upgrade: See above

Having gone for Rodney Stuckey with their earlier pick, the Pistons should look for some inside help with the second. With the departure of Ben Wallace last year, the Pistons lost a lot of their athleticism inside; Cleveland exposed this repeatedly in the Eastern Conference finals. One possible replacement for Wallace is Sean Williams, formerly of Boston College, who has a game similar to Marcus Camby’s and a nose for trouble that should make him perfectly at home in Detroit.

The pick: Sean Williams

28. San Antonio
Needs: Backup PG
Could upgrade: Bench

The Spurs, more than any other team, are likely to look overseas for an undervalued player, and there are two available here who might be useful to them. San Antonio lacks a quality center when Tim Duncan is playing power forward, so they might look at Marc Gasol; they also don’t seem to have gotten much out of Beno Udrih, their backup point guard. As the three-headed homunculus of Fabricio Oberto (a one-headed homunculus), Francisco Elson, and Jackie Butler aren’t defensive liabilities, backup point guard is probably the more pressing need. While the Spurs could take an American point guard like Oregon’s Aaron Brooks or Nevada’s Ramon Sessions, there’s a young Finnish point guard named Petteri Koponen who’s likely to stay in Europe for another year or so. He’d be a good addition to the Spurs’ tradition of stashing picks overseas.

The pick: Petteri Koponen

29. Phoenix
Needs: See above
Could upgrade: see above

The Suns probably don’t have a very long window to win a championship before Steve Nash’s back gives out, so they traded for Marcus Banks last year to productively use some his minutes. That didn’t work out so well, so they’re likely to take a backup PG at some point in this draft. Oregon’s Aaron Brooks probably isn’t big enough or a consistent enough shooter to start in the league, but he’s experienced enough to be a capable backup. Another possible pick might be Spain’s Rudy Fernandez, who is more of a tall, skinny combo guard. Fernandez’s athleticism would make him a good fit in the Phoenix system, and he’s a better shooter than Brooks.

The pick: Rudy Fernandez

30. Philadelphia
Needs: See above
Could upgrade: see above

The Sixers should go for more size here, and could take either Marc Gasol or Pittsburgh’s Aaron Gray. They have an early second-round pick, and could end up getting both – so Gasol’s a better pick, as he’s less likely to be around later. While neither of these two are going to be stars, the center for the Sixers during their last good year was Todd MacCulloch – they’re used to mediocrity from their big guys.

The pick: Marc Gasol

Seattle: Aaron Brooks
Boston: Gabe Pruitt
San Antonio: Derrick Byars
Dallas: Aaron Gray
Seattle: Ramon Sessions
Golden State: Daequan Cook
Portland: Reyshawn Terry
Philadelphia: Kyle Visser
Miami: Taurean Green
L.A. Lakers: Marcus Williams
Minnesota: Marco Belinelli
Portland: Carl Landry
New Orleans: Demetris Nichols
Orlando: Kyrylo Fesenko
L.A. Clippers: Glen Davis
Golden State: Dominic McGuire
Washington: Jermareo Davidson
L.A. Lakers: Herbert Hill
Chicago: Ionut Dragusin
Dallas: Ali Traore
Chicago: Quinton Hosley
Portland: DJ Strawberry
Portland: Ron Lewis
Orlando: Coleman Collins
Utah: Ivan Radenovic
Milwaukee: Marko Tomas
Detroit: Renaldas Seibutis
San Antonio: Stephane Lasme
Phoenix: Zabian Dowdell
Dallas: Zoran Erceg

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2006-2007 NBA Predictions

After a 2 month (ok, it was longer) sabbatical (ok, I was lazy) it's time to get back into things and what better way to do that than to unveil my annual NBA predictions!

Below the cut, full record projections of every team, a playoff tree, and predicted awards.



Projected Atlantic Division Standings

1. New Jersey Nets 52-30
2. Boston Celtics 39-43
3. Philadelphia 76ers 33-49
4. New York Knicks 31-51
5. Toronto Raptors 26-56

Projected Central Division Standings

1. Cleveland Cavaliers 54-28
2. Detroit Pistons 53-29
3. Chicago Bulls 49-33
4. Milwaukee Bucks ( 40-42
5. Indiana Pacers 33-49

Projected Southeast Division Standings

1. Miami Heat 55-27
2. Washington Wizards 48-34
3. Orlando Magic 42-40
4. Charlotte Bobcats 24-58
5. Atlanta Hawks 19-63

Projected Southwest Division Standings

1. San Antonio Spurs 61-21
2. Dallas Mavericks 58-24
3. Houston Rockets 48-44
4. New Orleans Hornets 43-39
5. Memphis Grizzlies 35-47

Projected Northwest Division Standings

1. Denver Nuggets 52-30
2. Utah Jazz 42-40
3. Minnesota Timberwolves 34-48
4. Seattle SuperSonics 31-51
5. Portland Trailblazers 21-61

Projected Pacific Division Standings

1. Phoenix Suns 57-25
2. Los Angeles Clippers 54-28
3. Los Angeles Lakers 44-38
4. Sacramento Kings 33-49
5. Golden State Warriors 24-58

Rookie of the Year: Brandon Roy
Coach of the Year: Mike Brown
Sixth Man: Andres Nocioni
Defensive Player of the Year: Ben Wallace
MVP: LeBron James


East Quarters

(1)Miami
vs
(8)Milwaukee

(4)Detroit
vs
(5)Chicago

(2)Cleveland
vs
(7)Orlando


(3)New Jersey
vs
(6)Washington

West Quarters

(1)San Antonio
vs
(8)New Orleans

(4)Denver
vs
(5)LA Clippers

(2)Dallas
vs
(7)LA Lakers

(3)Phoenix
vs
(6)Houston

East Semis

Miami
vs
Chicago

Cleveland
vs
Washington

West Semis

San Antonio
vs
LA Clippers

Dallas
vs
Phoenix


East Finals

Miami
vs
Cleveland

West Finals

San Antonio
vs
Phoenix

NBA Finals

San Antonio over Miami

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Rating the Commissioners

So, Roger Goddell has been the NFL commissioner for about...I dunno, 3 and a half hours. I think I'd already rank him as 2nd only to David Stern. I don't know much about the guy, except for the standard photo attached to any articles on the NFL commissioner search. You know, the one where he looks albino-ish and mean.

Why 2nd? Well, Bud Selig and Gary Bettman, of course. As long as they chair their respective sports, it's hard to take them seriously. MLB refuses to get anywhere near a salary cap system, and has extremely weak revenue sharing. As long as MLB insists that its business model is good for the game, Bud Selig (or someone equally as ineffectual) 1will be the commish. Does that sound good to anyone?

And Gary Bettman. Does this even need to be explained? Yes, the NHL is back and it appears to be more successful than ever, with a bright future. The simple fact that it lost a year due to a labor stoppage is enough for Bettman to be resigned to the worst of the worst commissioners ever.

Congrats, Roger. You're already better than 1/2 of the commissioners! And may you take the advise of DJ Gallo, and put 2 teams in Los Angeles. Since they will inevitably fail, they can then be moved...one to San Antonio and one to Las Vegas. Works for me!

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Beware of the Penguin.

Now that the Pittsburgh Penguins have been sold to a Hartford businessman, it's time to start guessing where they'll wind up.

The ingenius new arena plan is quite resourceful, but it doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Anyone who's ever waited for a jackpot from a casino should know that. Since the owner-in-waiting has already expressed an interest in moving the Pens to Kansas City, it would seem that there's a likely Seattle Sonics-like ending. The new owner says they want to stay in the city where the franchise is, while salivating over a brand new arena somewhere far away.

Naturally, this begs the question....

Where would the Penguins go? I think the best bets (assuming they leave, which is probably 50/50) are Kansas City, Houston, Winnipeg and Hartford. I'll explain why in the extended section...



Since the owner has already expressed an interest in moving to Kansas City to the new Sprint Center, it makes sense to rate them as the highest probable landing spot for the Penguins. The new arena will basically be an upgrade/replacement for Kemper Arena, and it appears Kansas City is actively looking for a major league level tenant. Since the NBA doesn't look to be adding teams any time soon, and the NHL has the whole lockout thing to live down, it makes sense that a relocated team in either league consider Kansas City. If the Penguins leave Pittsburgh, I say it's about a 60% likelihood that they wind up in KC.

Hartford would be a sentimental favorite, since the new owner is based in Hartford. However, the big problem in Hartford would be the lack of an NHL caliber arena. Sure, they could go back to the Civic Center until a new arena is built, and there's no concern that the Civic Center will be torn down. However, the recent trend in the NHL has been the new arena, that be-all, end-all revenue source that will make smaller markets competitive. Woukd the NHL's new salary cap and cost certainty structure help a team in an old arena? Probably so, in the interim. And the NHL would probably bask in the glow of positive coverage if an old WHA/NHL market was welcomed back into the league. There's also the folks down the road in Bristol who'd be very happy to have an NHL team. Some of them never got over losing the Whalers. And to be fair, Hartford had a plan in place to build a stadium for the New England Patriots before Foxboro stepped up with a replacement for the old stadium there. There appears to be a will in Hartford. Is there a way? I say 20% probability the Penguins land here if they leave Pittsburgh.

Houston is another market that could probably handle an NHL team. They would have gotten a team in the last expansion round had they had an arena plan in place. Alas, the voters of Houston didn't approve the Toyota Center until after the deadline to appease the NHL had passed. I think they were willing to play in the old Summit/Compaq Center for a year or two if they knew a new building was going to be built. One possible concern here is the lease agreement with the NBA's Houston Rockets. As I remember, the AHL's Aeros were not given favorable terms in the new building. Part of that might have been payback for the days in the Compaq Center, where the owner of the Aeros (Chuck Watson) held all the playing cards. Knowing that the city would hurt more if they lost the Rockets than the minor league Aeros, Rockets owner Les Alexander played every card in the deck to get favorable terms in the new Toyota Center. The Aeros play there now, and Watson is now a minority owner, having sold the majority shares to the Minnesota Wild. The lease terms might be so onerous as to prevent anyone but Alexander from owning an NHL team in the Toyota Center. Remember, Les Alexander had an agreement to purchase the Edmonton Oilers, and if local investors had not been found, he would have moved them to Houston. Some say that was a ploy to get a better hand in negotiating for a new building, but now that the new building is in place, he might have the only hand he needs. The Toyota Center is an outstanding venue for hockey, but 2 questions remain: Could Houston support the NHL, and could anyone but Alexander own them? With those 2 major questions, I think we have to put the probability of seeing the Houston Penguins as 5-10%.

Finally, the wildest wildcard of them all, the city of Winnipeg. The MTS Centre is the replacement for the Winnipeg Arena, the old barn that housed the Winnipeg Jets during their WHA/NHL days. Currently, the MTS Centre is home to the AHL's Manitoba Moose, but it's clear by the looks of it, they do not intend for the Centre to be down in the AHL very long. Winnipeg is following the template successfully employed by the cities of Nashville, New Orleans, and Oklahoma City: Build a state of the art arena, and hope for the best. One has to ask why cities would incur such huge startup costs just based on a hope. My best guess says that these mid-level cities build the arenas with a not-so-secret hope that they'll land a wandersome NBA or NHL team, and if they don't, they can still make good money on the concert and convention circuit. A city like Oklahoma City, once they have a modern arena in place, can offer the same amenities as a major convention destination city can, at a much cheaper price. A major league franchise adds to the city's cache and in theory, that cache could lead to more conventions. Naturally, major league franchises aren't the reason Orlando, Las Vegas and San Antonio are major convention destinations. Between those 3 cities, they have 2 franchises total. Expanding convention facilities is becoming more and more important, though, and adding new arenas only enhances that. Back on track to Winnipeg, though, as much goodwill as the NHL would garner from returning to Hartford, they could arguably get more by returning to Winnipeg. There's something about the migration of hockey franchises to the United States that really cheeses those Canadians off. The flip side to that is...now that the NHL is back, Canada loves it more than ever. Do they need to be placated any further? Taking all of this into consideration, I give the probability of the Winnipeg Penguins as 10-15%.

Dooby-dooby-doo.

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Part 2: Why isn’t minor league basketball taken seriously?

(editor's note: After some minor site difficulties, we are now fully operational at our brand spankin' new webhost. We're celebrating this outstanding acheivement in the field of excellence by continuing our series on the wonders of minor league basketball. This entry was written entirely by co-bloggist draftmocker and I found nothing to add of my own, so enjoy!)

To get you up to speed, we're contemplating the state of minor league basketball. For the first in this series, click here.

And to finish up the series, I give you...the Eastern Division



Norfolk/Virginia Beach (1.65 million people, no teams): While this area is kind of spread out, it has a very nice arena in the Hampton Coliseum, more or less centrally located. Hampton is also close enough to draw from Richmond.

Greensboro/Winston-Salem (1.11 million people, no teams): Neither of these cities are huge (both about half a million), but they’re pretty close together. Raleigh-Durham might seem like a better choice in that they’re bigger and have better facilities, but they have the ACC trinity in Duke, UNC, and NC State within metro limits. There’s nothing like that in Greensboro-Winston-Salem. On the other hand, the Hurricanes’ arena in Raleigh may make that a better pick. Either way, there should be a team in central NC.

Hartford (1.19 million people, no teams): If you put the arena on the south side of Hartford, you can draw from New Haven (800k people). If you put the arena on the north side of Hartford, you can draw from Springfield, Mass (600k people). If you use the Whalers’ old arena, you don’t have to build a new one.

Louisville (1.2 million people, no teams): Louisville made a serious run at the Hornets and the Grizzlies when both teams were moving. Freedom Hall would make a decent facility, basketball is big in both Indiana and Kentucky, and Rick Pitino could fulfill his desire to coach in the NBA without leaving town or dealing with egos larger than his.

Columbus (1.7 million people, 1 team): I originally had Dayton in this slot, but Columbus is significantly bigger and has the Blue Jackets arena to poach. While there is some competition from OSU basketball, I don’t expect the Oden era to last 4 years.

Rochester (1.04 million people, no teams): While the population figures are extremely generous (I would put the number closer to 700k), and the city’s slowly dying, there used to have an ABA franchise in Rochester. If it doesn’t work out, they can always move. Also, according to the city website, they have a professional women’s football team. Any city which will support that will go see NBDL games.

Grand Rapids (768,000 people, no teams): Grand Rapids is a lot like Dayton or Toledo, but slightly bigger. Beyond geographic balance and lack of competition, there’s no great reason to put a team here, but it is close enough to Lansing and Kalamazoo to pull additional people from those cities. Franchise player: Mateen Cleaves.

Birmingham (1.01 million people, no teams): Birmingham is growing rapidly for no clear reason, and the megachurches desperately need some competition. Putting a basketball team in town satisfies everyone, as it provides both entertainment and something new to demonize.

Greenville/Spartanburg, SC (848,000 people, no teams): While it’s never good to have to put a state name after the city to make it clear which one you’re talking about it, this is actually a pretty busy area. Some of the outlying area is closer to Charlotte, and it might make more sense to bust the Bobcats down to the D-league- but since that’s not going to happen, this seems as good a place as any for a team.

Jacksonville (1.23 million people, 1 team): How does Jacksonville have an NFL team, again? I’m not sure about this last choice. It’s partially for geographic balance, because it seems like a bad idea to leave Florida unrepresented (and the closest other choice was Albany, which is too much like Rochester), and partially because it was one of the largest cities on here. Still, I’d feel better about putting a team in a place like Peoria, if only it were bigger. Not that there’s a reason for Peoria to be bigger. Jacksonville it is.

Other options considered: Cincinnati, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Nashville, and Tampa were all eliminated due to overrepresentation (and, in the case of Pittsburgh at least, failure to justify the existence of existing franchises). It would be something of an embarrassment to Tampa to have an NBDL team out-draw the Devil Rays; Cincinnati already has a team of professional-caliber miscreants, and putting a team in Buffalo would almost guarantee it a shitty name, like the Horns or the Herd. Nashville has redeeming qualities, but there’s already a lot to do there. Baltimore is like the Oakland of the East coast- we know it’s there, and it’s big and all, but have you ever heard anybody excitedly talking about their next trip to Baltimore? Like Oakland to San Francisco, Baltimore is the poorer, blacker sibling of Washington, DC, which is already very poor and very black. Not that poverty or blackitude is grounds for dismissal, it’s just overrepresented with teams as is.

Dayton: Very nearly got the nod over Columbus, mostly due to lack of representation in teams and proximity to Cincy suburbs. Would still be a decent pick, but we can’t have teams in both Dayton and Columbus. Or Toledo, also considered.

Albany: I considered this one instead of Jacksonville, but it seemed hard to justify two teams in upstate NY. I also insisted earlier that this would be a better site than Rochester, but after thinking about it more I’m not really sure. It always surprises me how many people live in those places (Syracuse, too).

Providence: Somehow, the census bureau puts 1.6 million people living in the Providence metro area, which is almost twice the population of Rhode Island. Until they can get their facts straight, they don’t deserve consideration.

New Haven: The home of Yale, and of smack. Too close to Hartford.

Syracuse: See Albany.

Madison: I like Madison, but it’s not big enough yet, and UW’s in town. It’s not fair to Bo Ryan to put a more exciting team in his backyard.

Knoxville: Growing like a weed, but full of football-loving bumpkins. No.

Richmond: Too close to Norfolk.

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Why isn’t minor league basketball taken seriously?

(editor's note: the bulk of this post was written by co-bloggist draftmocker. notations have been made when there is disagreement by head bloggist draftmockery)

This question grew out of a conversation that we had around three years ago, while sitting in our house of office (Duddley’s Draw) in College Station, TX. It was shortly after Isaiah had been hired as the GM of the Knicks, and we were laughing over how he kept getting put in charge of things after destroying the CBA. This turned the conversation to a more serious note- why did the CBA fail, and why had nothing replaced it, as basketball was clearly in need of a minor league? The proto-NBDL had existed for a year or two, playing and failing miserably in places like Roanoke, VA, Fayetteville, NC, and Minot, ND (!), but it was clear that a better minor league was both necessary and feasible, and we set about designing it.

As both of us have serious, disturbing-to-our-friends political wonkish tendencies, we went about this by trying to establish simple standards for a league (How many teams? Divisions? Playoffs? If so, how?) and then tried to come up with the most logical places to put teams. We looked at geographic balance, population figures, average income levels, representation by other pro franchises (NFL, MLB, and grudgingly, NHL), and regional popularity/tradition (i.e. Ft. Wayne might be a better location for a franchise than Lubbock, even though neither city has much in the way of redeeming value). Around a year later, the current incarnation of the NBDL was implemented, and while it represents a clear improvement over its predecessor, we still feel that there is room for improvement. That is, improvement in terms of viability/profitability for the league. We can offer no advice to help Siberian giants develop a consistent jump shot, or to convince people to stay at the University of Memphis for more than a month. One hint to collegians who would really like to play in the Association instead of the D: Stop stabbing people. And stop calling ex-girlfriends 200 times in one night.

For the league, we decided to go with a 2-division (West and East), 20-team format, with a short playoff between teams 1-4 in each division, winners playing for the championship (and a 10-day contract). Each NBA franchise would be required to commit at least three players to their developmental franchise, and second-round picks would be guaranteed contracts (albeit shitty ones). Teams without picks in a draft would be obligated to sign undrafted free agents to fill their roster slots, assuming that they didn’t have picks carrying over from prior years that they wanted to keep developing. Here, then, are our picks for which cities should have franchises in an updated NBDL, and the rationale behind our choices.



First, the Western Division.

Western Division (10 teams)

Las Vegas (1.66 million people, no teams): Someone has to put a franchise here eventually. While Vegas won’t always be the fastest-growing city in the country, it’s the largest city without a professional franchise, and will hit 2 million people sometime in the next ten years. Also, while the residents of Vegas aren’t particularly wealthy, tens of thousands of people fly there every day to spend money. You think that some tourists might catch a game while they’re in town? It might actually make more sense to dissolve UNLV (the nominal university behind the basketball team) and promote the college program to the league. They already have a NBDL coach in Lon Kruger, the man with three eyebrows. The biggest reason to put a team here would be to take advantage of the population explosion and possibly priming the city for an NBA franchise. The biggest disadvantage would be Keeping budding D-leaguers focused and out of the casinos. For both the residents and the visitors…there’s a lot to do in Vegas. Why go see minor league hoops?


Austin (1.4 million people, no teams): Austin is another example of a city that’s growing rapidly and lacking any representation in the world of professional sports. In all fairness to the league, there’s already an NBDL franchise here, where you can go to see Marcus Fizer dominate the proceedings like the seasoned journeyman he is. Arguments against Austin include the fact that there’s already a lot to do there, diminishing the lure of a subpar pro team a bit, and that the University of Texas is as close to a professional organization as you can find in college sports (football more so than basketball). Could minor league hoops help in “keeping Austin weird” or would the hipsters who have made Round Rock’s Dell Diamond the best ballpark in minor league baseball ignore it? A better choice in Texas might be Ft. Worth. While Dallas overshadows it in the metroplex, there’s a long-established metropolitan structure (as compared to Austin, which basically grew out of the state capitol/university area and hasn’t stopped growing. Plus, with 5 million or more in the metro area (which has long been a hotbed for talent) it’s probably not that far of a stretch to think that 6,000 or so would come to the Stockyards for minor league basketball.

Tucson (900,000 people, no teams): When did Tucson get this big? The University of Arizona is here, which could be seen as a potential drawback for attendance. On the other hand, they produce about one not-as-good-as-expected pro per year (Miles Simon, Loren Woods, Michael Dickerson, I’m looking at you guys), so they could benefit from the hometown support. Tucson probably doesn’t have designs on being a major league city, and in this case it helps them quite a bit. It’s not too much of a stretch to hope that a fevered following of Wildcat hoops could possibly bleed over into support for a minor league team.

Albuquerque (781,000 people, no teams): U.S. News and World Report recently ranked Albuquerque as the sixth-best place to live in the country. I can only conclude from this information that they’ve never been to Albuquerque. Why, then, include it on this list? Well, mostly for reasons of geographic balance. While it’s big, it’s also poor- but it’s better than El Paso, which is the other potential pick for this geographic region. One benefit is that they have the facilities for it- and I believe that they have an NBDL team at the moment, proving that someone in the front office is thinking about geographic balance. Albuquerque is a lot like Tucson in that nobody expects them to be contending for major league status and if a tie can be made to the glory days of Lobo hoops, this could be a very successful franchise. Leave Dave Bliss out of this, though.

Riverside/San Bernardino (3.8 million people (!), no teams*): To say that there are 3.8 people living in Riverside and San Bernardino is pretty ridiculous. SB county is the size of New England, there’s not a whole lot going on in either city, and we can basically conclude that the residents of both are trying to live in LA, and are as close to that as they can afford to get. By that logic, why not give them an NBDL team? Sure, they won’t be the Lakers- but they could be the Lakers affiliate! Also, Riverside/SB/Ontario are far enough out from central LA that they function as an independent system for fouling traffic. That counts as a city to me. Would the citizens of the Inland Empire look down their noses at the D league? And would model/bartenders and waitress/actresses rather see games close to their homes or would they rather take out a third mortgage to sit within shouting distance of Jack Nicholson or Billy Crystal?

Omaha (804,000 people, no teams): Somewhere in middle America, right to the heart of the matter, etc. Omaha could serve as a place of exile for ex-Cincinnati players- upon being drafted, all of them are assigned to Omaha. It would go a long way towards making both the players’ lives and Nebraska more interesting. Also, there are facilities available, and Omaha’s close enough to draw from Lincoln, another 250k people.

Fresno (867,000 people, no teams): Another large city in the middle of nowhere, without much going on. There are a lot of these in California, but Fresno seems like a better place than a team for most, even if the median income is kind of low. It’s higher than Bakersfield, which was the other option (also, it’s further from LA and closer to SF). The only drawback is that people might equate basketball in Fresno with players attacking people with swords. Or maybe that’s just me.

Boise (525,000 people, no teams): The smallest of the cities selected so far, this seems like a bit of a stretch. However, consider these factors- the city is growing very quickly (it was about 150,000 people as recently as 15 years ago), and most of its new population is made up of rich and idle Californians. Like Austin, it’s a relatively young and wealthy city that seems likely to continue growing, and Boise State isn’t going to provide much competition for viewers. Boise also adds a degree of geographic balance to a division that is heavily weighted towards the Sun Belt. A successful stint in the CBA that led to a spot in the real NBDL is enough to justify their existence in minor league basketball.

Little Rock (637,000 people, no teams): While Little Rock isn’t very big, it has an established ABA team which draws very well (and which will be integrated into the NBDL next year), and good facilities. The potential for growth isn’t as high as it is for some cities, but knowing that the fans will show up is good for something. This could possibly be a model franchise given the love for basketball in Arkansas. What’s Nolan Richardson doing these days anyway? Are all his lawsuits completed by now? Make him coach and GM and sit back and count the money.

Oklahoma City/New Orleans/Seattle/Portland (many people, team situations varied): It looks like one of these cities is going to be left out when the music stops. If that city is Seattle, Portland, or Oklahoma City, the logical choice is to put a team there. If the city without a team is New Orleans…then things get more complicated. I personally don’t believe that New Orleans will remain viable as a major city, and that it will continue its sharp decline as it is repeatedly flattened and flooded by hurricanes. Baton Rouge may pick up some of the people, but I’m not sure that basketball has a future in Louisiana. None of these cities really want a minor league basketball team. They’re established as major league cities and to put a franchise in a fledgling league would be a waste of money.

Other options considered: It seems strange that big western cities like St. Louis, Kansas City, and San Diego don’t have NBA teams, but obviously there’s not enough talent around to justify expanding the league, and aside from the current carousel in New Orleans/Oklahoma City, which is spreading to Seattle and to Portland, things seem pretty stable around the league. I think that St. Louis will eventually end up with a team, as they have a beautiful facility (Savvis Center) for it, and a large, enthusiastic fan base. Kansas City has similar positives. All three have had NBA franchises in the past, which might make the league pause in moving teams to the cities…but I wouldn’t have predicted that basketball would have worked in OKC, and it seems to be going fine. Here are the other cities I considered, and why I decided against them.

Tulsa: This one was the hardest to pass up, because there are close to a million people in Tulsa and just over a million in OKC. The cities are about an hour apart, and OKC’s really spread out- if there were a suitable bridge city, a la Trenton or Akron, it might make sense to build a stadium there and draw from both locations. However, if there is a team in OKC, it doesn’t really make sense to put a team in Tulsa.

San Jose: Another tricky one. San Jose’s definitely a part of the SF Bay area, but it represents a separate urban center from the SF-Oakland nexus. They have the Sharks and an MLS team, both of which do pretty well- but it seemed like the Bay Area market is pretty well saturated with teams, and the Warriors don’t do that well. As San Jose is the world’s largest suburb, it makes little sense to plunk a team down in the middle. It might disturb the traffic flow to Chili’s.

Bakersfield: On the one hand, people might go see the games just to get out of the heat, sulfurous stench, and smog. On the other hand, the city is a blistering hellhole, a Californian version of Lubbock. It’s poor, it smells bad, it’s remote, and is at the uncomfortable point of being too large to exist practically, but not large enough to justify its own existence. I wouldn’t wish it on Qyntel Woods or Ruben Patterson.

El Paso: Functionally not so different from Albuquerque, but poorer. Also worth mentioning, can you imagine giving marginal NBA players easy access to Juarez? It’s a bad, bad idea with potentially hilarious results.

Rio Grande Valley/Brownsville: Same basic problems as El Paso. Lots of people, but not much money, and zero urban base.

Baton Rouge: Depends on New Orleans. The Census Bureau says that 727,000 people live in Baton Rouge, which seems as though the estimate might be based on the guesses of LSU athletes. On the good side, they do have the facilities. On the bad side, if there’s a team in New Orleans, there’s no need for a team in Baton Rouge. This is where I (draftmockery) most disagree. I think Baton Rouge is as close to a perfect market as you can get for minor league basketball. There’s always been a ton of homegrown talent here. It’s a budding city that doesn’t have eyes on the major leagues of anything. Even if the choices were Baton Rouge and New Orleans, I’d go for Baton Rouge anyway. Despite the near-loss of New Orleans as a city, I believe New Orleans still has an aura all its own that frankly, would swallow minor league basketball in the same way it could get swallowed in Las Vegas or Austin. While Baton Rouge is a lot like Austin in that its base is the university and the state capital, nobody will ever think of it as a major league city and it is unknown what effect the Katrina-inflicted growing pains will have on the city.

Des Moines: Has potential since there’s nothing to do there, but is small and shrinking.

Wichita: Some potential. Small but established urban base, decent average income, and access to facilities- but doesn’t do much for geographic balance.

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