The 2007 NBA Draft

This piece is intended to address the needs of various teams in a bubble, as though their rosters were fixed and no trades were allowed, not that either of these things are remotely close to true. While adopting a method based on college rules (willful shells of ignorance about real conditions/fixed rosters) may seem illogical, and probably is, it does make predicting the logical order of things a hell of a lot easier. We’re not saying that this is the way things should be; just that if teams were actually picking to address their needs, this is how we would go about doing it. Simple enough, right? So, no predictions on the inevitable chaos and bad decisions that will hit the draft as soon as trades start being made or Atlanta starts picking (possibly at the same point); just an analysis of who needs what.

1. Portland
Needs: SF, time
Could upgrade: PG, PF/C

Portland’s starting SF is Darius Miles. We’ll assume that needs no further elaboration. Besides the erstwhile Mr. Miles, Portland has a surprisingly good young roster, much like Chicago’s. The two spots that could use an upgrade are PF/C and point guard, filled respectively by Zach Randolph and Jarrett Jack. Neither of these are bad players by any means- Randolph just had a big year, and should continue to put up similar numbers for as long as he is able to stay healthy and out of jail (probably similar lengths of time). In a normal draft, or even in this draft with a pick other than #1, Randolph stays. There’s nothing wrong with Jarrett Jack, either- he’s a pretty good point guard. He’s a step below the others in the conference, but that’s because the position is loaded: Steve Nash, Deron Williams, Chris Paul, Allen Iverson, Tony Parker, etc. There probably isn’t a better PG next year than Jack in the draft, although Conley will probably wind up being better than him.

So what’s a team with a glaring need at SF, the #1 pick, and the best SF to enter the draft in god-knows-how-many years available to do?

Easy. Take Greg Oden.



2. Seattle
Needs: C, PG, and if Rashard Lewis leaves, SF; a new arena, city, or owner
Could upgrade: PF

If Portland does wind up picking Durant, Seattle will have completely wasted first-round picks three years in a row on young and inexperienced centers, before taking a fourth young and inexperienced center that nullifies the first three. Obviously, there are some differences between Robert Swift, Johan Petro, Mohammed Sene, and Greg Oden, beyond the fact that Oden looks as old as any two of them combined. It’s possible that any of the three Seattle centers could develop into a decent player, but none of them meet that standard yet, or even have much in the way of trade value. Seattle’s PG is Luke Ridnour or Earl Watson, depending on which is playing less poorly. None of the PGs available are immediately better than either of those two, although Conley and possibly others will be better than both. The PF slot belongs to Chris Wilcox and Nick Collison, and while neither are dominant, neither are bad. Rashard Lewis’s contract status makes the SF slot an open question- if he re-signs, they’re in good shape, and if not, they’re starting Mickael Gelabale. Given that their most likely pick plays his position, I’m guessing Lewis doesn’t re-sign, or signs only to be traded.

The pick, then? Kevin Durant.

It is worth mentioning here that there are obvious clashes here between the CW and the needs of the two teams deciding between the two best prospects and years. The CW has Oden going first, and Oden is undeniably a great pick- he’s likely to be the best center in the league for the next ten years. Durant is a less safe pick in that he plays a less essential position (this could be debated, but it is worth noting that the only championship teams of the last 20-or-so years lacking a dominant center were Jordan’s Bulls teams, while many of those teams lacked a dominating small forward) and faces a steeper physical curve than Oden, but it’s clear to anyone who’s seen him play that he’s going to be a major star in the league. Better than Oden? It’s possible. It’s unlikely that Portland will take Durant first because he’s a better fit for the team, because Kevin Pritchard doesn’t want to be The Guy Who Passed on Greg Oden for the rest of his life. But it wouldn’t be an inexcusable pick by any means.

3. Atlanta
Needs: A new GM, badly; everything but SF and maybe SG
Could upgrade: See above

We don’t have to dwell on the incompetence of Billy Knight here, because that topic has been both covered and mined for humor extensively -- but I would note that last year’s pick at #5, Shelden Williams, would be sharing time on the bench with Shavlik Randolph if you made an NBA team entirely out of former Duke players. Not what you look for from a #5 pick who played 4 years in college, especially with the consensus best player in the draft (Brandon Roy) still on the board. For humor value, the best thing Knight could possibly do for us is to pick Corey Brewer (another 6’8 athletic swingman, although a bit more promising than some of his other picks), and then fly to Detroit to cackle maniacally as he and Matt Millen share a bath of virginal blood while lighting cigars with hundred-dollar bills. Unfortunately, we probably won’t see that.

The most glaring needs for Atlanta are probably center and point guard. Unlike their Portland and Seattle counterparts, the starters in Atlanta don’t get their abilities defended here, although Zaza Pachulia is surprisingly decent. So the pick comes down to Al Horford or Mike Conley, Jr, both of whom seem likely to end up being good. Horford is more likely to help right away, but does Atlanta have anything to play for right away? They’ve sucked for years, and they’re going to continue sucking until someone arrives in their front office who can turn some of their assets into a real team, rather than a 6’8 experimental collective. Either of these guys would be a step in the right direction, as neither is 6’8, and both play a real position – the one deciding factor in which one to pick is that Atlanta has the #11 pick as well, where there is likely to be a serviceable point guard available (but less likely to be a serviceable center). In imaginary bubble-world, Horford is the logical pick.

The pick: Al Horford

4. Memphis
Needs: Help
Could upgrade: PG, PF, C if Gasol is traded

Memphis is awful, and will continue to be awful for the foreseeable future. This is not entirely a bad thing, as they’re an extremely young team- over half their roster has been in the league 3 years or less, and several of their veterans are guys like Brian Cardinal, Chucky Atkins, and Stromile Swift -- not exactly players that you expect to see big contributions from, let alone development. They have a very good center in Pau Gasol, who is understandably miserable about living in Memphis and playing on a team that’s going to take years to get anywhere, assuming that there’s somewhere for them to go. Gasol seems likely to be traded, which is fine if they manage to get picks and good young players for him, and not fine if they get only mediocre veterans and expiring contracts. While many of the young players on Memphis aren’t going to amount to much, Gay, Warrick, and Alexander Johnson have a shot at being decent, and Kyle Lowry looked promising before getting hurt early in the year. If Memphis is going to use Rudy Gay as a shooting guard, their most glaring need is going to be inside at the 4 and 5 slots, which means that the best pick would be someone like Joakim Noah, Brandan Wright, or Yi Jianlian. None of those picks is a sure thing. Noah’s the most ready to contribute of the three – while he’ll never be an offensive force, he’ll be a good defender and rebounder. I’m not sold on Brandan Wright ever being a great player, or even necessarily a very good one. He’s weak and diffident most of the time, and while he’s very athletic, he’s not a good defender. Memphis already employs the older version of this player in Stromile Swift, who’s probably not the best example for Mr. Wright as he develops. And finally, Yi is an unknown – he could turn into something special, and he could end up being a spectacular bust. Memphis doesn’t have another pick in this draft, which means that they can’t afford to miss unless they’re able to trade into another pick or two. Because of this, my guess is that they’ll go for Brandan Wright, as the player generally seen as having the highest ceiling and the most offensive firepower. As they’re pretty well set for blocks and rebounds, my personal pick would be Yi – it’s not like they’re going to lose any fans if he underachieves or takes a while to develop.

The pick: Brandan Wright

5. Boston
Needs: PG, SF, C, star power
Could upgrade: Any of the above

Boston’s similar to Memphis in that they’re a very young team filled out with crappy veterans (Brian Scalabrine, Michael Olowokandi, Theo Ratliff’s contract) and one star, Paul Pierce. Some of their young players are very good (Al Jefferson), and most of them fall into that uncomfortable area where they are neither very good nor totally devoid of value, but none are likely to develop into stars. At #5, there’s one and possibly two potential stars still available, which is probably the biggest need for Boston right now – like LA, the Boston media and fan base isn’t going to be happy with the disorganized gaggle of undeveloped, questionable talent that makes up the current state of the team. The best pick here has both the skill (primarily defense) to help immediately, and a high enough ceiling to develop into a great player in the future – Corey Brewer. He may not turn into Scottie Pippen – that’s a lot of development – but he’s further along at this stage of his career than Pippen was, and shares many of the same traits.

The pick: Corey Brewer

6. Milwaukee
Needs: ?
Could upgrade: PG, SF or PF

The SF or PF depends on whether or not Charlie Villanueva qualifies as a SF or PF. He’d probably be a better fit at SF, but the Bucks employ Andrew Bogut and a bunch of stiffs in the middle. Bogut is most comfortable playing center, which means that there are a lot of large people being paid to not play center, or to play power forward poorly. PG doesn’t require an upgrade if Mo Williams stays, but if they’re going to lose him to free agency, their backup is…Earl Boykins? The options, then, are: paying/overpaying Mo Williams and drafting a forward, or letting Williams walk and drafting a point guard. Williams is young and competent, and thereby worth keeping, so the Bucks go big, where their best options are Joakim Noah and Yi Jianlian. Noah doesn’t provide much offense, while Yi will take time to develop, which is a special code for not providing much offense and being a defensive liability. Given that the Bucks could actually be pretty good next year (Redd, Villanueva, Bogut, Williams, and someone else isn’t a bad team in the Eastern conference), it makes more sense to me to pick a player that can contribute, even if he’s not going to score a lot. Take Noah, and try not to get too frustrated when he and Bogut keep passing the ball back and forth when they’re both 6 feet from the basket.

The pick: Joakim Noah

7. Minnesota
Needs: PG, C, bench
Could upgrade: SF

Looking at Minnesota’s roster, it’s unclear to me how they aren’t the worst team in the league. Kevin Garnett is still a great player, but he has jack shit around him (with the possible exception of Randy Foye) and plays in the tough conference. Rather than trading Garnett for draft picks and expiring contracts in order to rebuild, the league should insist on forcing a trade exclusively for expiring contracts (Minnesota’s used to not getting to draft anyone, anyway) and then simply disband the team and move the Grizzlies to Minnesota, where their name makes at least a little more sense and people will pay to watch them. Unfortunately, this isn’t going to happen. Recognizing that the Wolves are going to suck and continue sucking, then, the logical thing to do would be to take a player who’s going to take some time to develop, meaning Yi or Mike Conley. In an ideal universe where foreign players all live up to their potential, Chad Ford is an unfailing oracle, and Nikolos Tshittykvili and Darko Milicic are superstars of epic proportions, Yi would turn into the second coming of Kevin Garnett. If the Wolves take Yi, he might learn a few things as Garnett’s understudy before KG embraces free agency like a drowning pervert clutches a blow-up doll. In a world where Kevin McHale still thinks there’s a chance (that would be this one, in case you were counting), he needs to take someone who will throw Garnett the ball, rather than someone who will ask him constantly for pointers in broken English. Conley, then, is the logical choice -– and a backcourt of Conley and Randy Foye is going to look pretty good in a few years.

The pick: Mike Conley, Jr.

8. Charlotte
Needs: Talent, SG, SF if Gerald Wallace leaves, time
Could upgrade: Actually, hard to say. PF?

Charlotte has actually done a pretty good job of stockpiling good young players. Okafor and Felton both look like legitimate starters, Sean May’s not bad, and Gerald Wallace is good – although that isn’t quite as helpful if he leaves as a free agent, which is a likely outcome. While Adam Morrison doesn’t look like he’s going to amount to much, he might be a useful bench player if there are enough quality people to play him behind. As a young team with few expectations, again it makes sense to take the best available player and wait for them to develop. If they’re going to lose Wallace, that player is probably Jeff Green; if not, it’s probably Yi. Either of these is actually a good choice; although the lack of high expectations for this team means that I’d lean towards taking Yi, whose payoff is potentially much higher than Jeff Green’s.

The pick: Yi Jianlian

9. Chicago
Needs: C/PF
Could upgrade: Frontcourt depth

The Bulls are pretty well set at the guard and SF slots with some combination of Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Andres Nocioni, Thabo Sefolosha, and Chris Duhon. However, they could use some help up front, where Tyrus Thomas is the only promising or competent player on the team (no, Ben Wallace doesn’t count – he was overrated before having a shitty year, and now is simply overpaid and exposed.) This poses something of a problem, as the top centers and power forwards from this draft are already off the board. Spencer Hawes is still available, and is highly regarded for some reason, but I don’t see John Paxson drafting the second coming of Chris Kaman and fucking up his team’s uptempo style. The players left on the board that could help, then, are Jeff Green, Al Thornton, and maybe Julian Wright. If the Bulls are willing to accept that they’re not going to win a championship next year with Ben Wallace as their center, and therefore he should essentially be written off until his contract can be traded, they can afford to take a guy who may develop like Wright. If they’re trying for next year (which isn’t a bad idea, although I think their ceiling is the finals), they’re better off taking Green or Thornton to help right away. As Nocioni is likely to leave in free agency, the ideal fit would be a backup SF/PF type with some scoring skills, which fits Thornton perfectly. Jeff Green may end up being a better player – he’s likely to end up as the next Shane Battier – but he’s less physical and offensively talented than Thornton is at this stage, so that pick makes more sense to me.

The pick: Al Thornton

10. Sacramento
Needs: Everything but SG and SF
Could upgrade: See above

Sacramento is facing a long downhill slide, as their roster is basically Kevin Martin, Ron Artest, and a whole lot of no future. Even this requires some qualification, because it is by no means clear that Ron Artest’s future is with Sacramento – there’s a roughly equal chance that Ron’s future includes early retirement and fun with Latrell Sprewell (I’d pay to watch a TV show dedicated to their daily activities), a questionable rap career, a trip to jail, or a new life devoted to swimming and communicating with dolphins. Due to this uncertainty, Sacramento should be committed to taking the best available player, who at this point is probably Jeff Green. However, there’s also the potential to take Spencer Hawes and have Brad Miller teach him how to be the next Brad Miller. The Kings have had a long tradition (as far as these things go) of building their offense around an unathletic white center with good passing skills and a decent jump shot, and that description fits Mr. Hawes pretty well. They might be better off holding out for Kevin Love next year, but for the sake of a consistent team strategy, I’ll suggest they take Hawes.

The pick: Spencer Hawes

11. Atlanta
Needs: See previous list, subtract PF.
Could upgrade: See above.

I didn’t do this on purpose, but the best player left on the board is an athletic 6’9 swingman, and Atlanta needs a point guard. I can’t believe they’d actually do that, though. It’s certainly possible, but that would be just too perfect. There are potentially good point guards available here, and that’s probably the direction they’ll go. The two best PG prospects after Conley are Acie Law IV of Texas A&M and Javaris Crittendon of Georgia Tech, who each have their merits and flaws. In Law’s case, he’s not an exceptional passer, and in Crittendon’s case, he’s coming out after a shaky first year in which he accomplished nothing and made a lot of bad decisions. Two mitigating factors in Crittendon’s favor make him the likely pick, though – he’s a little taller (Law is 6’3, Crittendon 6’4), and he’s from Atlanta. If I were the GM of the Hawks (not actually a job I would want, mind you), I’d take Law – he’s not likely to be a star, but he’s a better point guard than Speedy Claxton. As far as I’m concerned, Crittendon is the most likely player in the lottery to end up as a total bust – while he has plenty of potential, he also has a large ego, a long development curve, and a hometown disadvantage. The last thing an 18-year old kid with a questionable work ethic and decision-making skills needs is money, an entourage that doesn’t even have to leave home to get him into trouble, and a city like Atlanta in which he can develop his talents.

Naturally, the Hawks will take him over Law. If they don’t take Green.

The pick: Javaris Crittendon

12. Philadelphia
Needs: SG, PF
Could upgrade: C

Philly could take a 2 or a 3 to pair with Andre Iguodala, who seems like the only young player on the Sixers likely to amount to much. Andre Miller is a pretty good point guard, especially by conference standards, but beyond the two of them the Sixers are a collection of overpaid role players. Of special note is the frontcourt, which is loaded with detritus – not only do they employ Shavlik Randolph, but surrounding him on the depth chart are the likes of Joe Smith, Steven Hunter, Alan Henderson, and Samuel Dalembert. Dalembert is a shot-blocker and nothing more, and that’s the nicest thing that you can say about any of the five. Unfortunately, while the Sixers badly need help up front, there’s not much available at this level. They could reach to take Jason Smith of Colorado State or pick a foreign center like Tiago Splitter, who wouldn’t help for a couple of years, or they could take Jeff Green, who is inexplicably still on the board. (Note: this is where bubble world fails. Someone would have traded up to pick him by now.) If Green is still available, he’s a great pick – and there are plenty of large people with rudimentary skills available later in the draft.

The pick: Jeff Green

13. New Orleans
Needs: SG
Could upgrade: Bench, SF (?)

New Orleans has a couple of good young players in Tyson Chandler and David West, and one of the top five point guards in the league in Chris Paul. Their veterans and role players aren’t great, but if everyone’s healthy they aren’t a bad team. Peja Stojakovic missed most of last year to injury, which is not an uncommon trait for him, and his absence exposed a lack of outside shooting. The pick, then, will address this concern, and there are two decent choices available in USC’s Nick Young and Vanderbilt’s Derrick Byars. Byars is a little bit bigger and more physical, but isn’t a great defender and may be too slow to play shooting guard; Young may be a little less consistent right now but probably has a higher ceiling than Byars. Young, being the more natural shooting guard, is probably the better pick here. He’s not a guaranteed success, but he has fewer risks and liabilities than Byars and probably more potential to improve.

The pick: Nick Young

14. L.A. Clippers
Needs: PG
Could upgrade: Bench, SF

The Clippers shouldn’t have to be worrying about a point guard after taking Shaun Livingston two years ago, but the last we saw of Mr. Livingston, he was closer to joining Joe Theismann in the booth than he was running a team. If he recovers from his horrific knee injury, Livingston may very well become an elite point guard, but he seems more likely to end up like Jay Williams of Duke/Chicago from a few years back. Sam Cassell has been running the point in L.A. for the last couple of years, but Sam I Am is old, and not even his giant testicles dance will disguise that forever. With the exception of Elton Brand, the Clippers’ other players are neither very good or inadequate. Corey Maggette is a good option off of the bench, but has wanted out of L.A. forever, and will eventually get there, and after him there’s a steep drop in terms of talent. Realistically, the Clippers could take pretty much anyone and expect to get better, but the best pick is probably another point guard in case Livingston doesn’t recover. Acie Law has a similar game to a younger Sam Cassell, and would be an excellent replacement.

The pick: Acie Law IV

15. Detroit
Needs: C, PG if Billups leaves
Could upgrade: Bench

Detroit’s got a talented if elderly starting five, but they’re not very deep. Assuming that they re-sign Chauncey Billups, they could go for either guard or forward depth, but with what’s available at the 15th pick, they’re probably better off taking a guard – preferably one with some PG skills. The list of competent combo guards in the draft is basically Nick Young and Rodney Stuckey of Eastern Washington, so the Pistons will take Stuckey. Stuckey’s college game was similar to Lindsey Hunter’s, so he might learn a thing or two from the old guys on the bench.

The pick: Rodney Stuckey

16. Washington
Needs: SG, C
Could upgrade: Bench

Washington’s biggest need is probably at center, where they have two stiffs (Brendan Haywood and Etan Thomas) who not only aren’t very good, but also hate each other’s guts and routinely get into fistfights in the locker room. Along with the ever-quotable Gilbert Arenas, this makes for a funny team to observe from afar, but humor value is less appreciated by both fan bases and ownership. While it might be possible to upgrade the two crappy centers who hate each other to two crappy centers who don’t hate each other, the better solution might be to find one decent center who doesn’t hate anyone. At this point in the draft, there are none available – although there may be some help overseas, where the Wizards have turned for talent in recent years. The best overseas center talent, by most measures, is Brazil’s Tiago Splitter, who plays in Spain. Splitter has contract issues that would prevent him from playing right away, but is generally expected to be a solid if unspectacular center when he does make it over. The second option is to upgrade the shooting guard position, where Jarvis Hayes is not commanding many double teams, but SG seems like less of a priority when Arenas and Caron Butler are handling outside shooting duties, especially given that Arenas doesn’t pass the ball very much.

The pick: Tiago Splitter


17. New Jersey
Needs: PF, bench
Could upgrade: see above

Picking at 17, New Jersey’s not going to grab a starting power forward, so the logical pick is to look for a solid bench contributor at one of their weaker positions – probably 4 and 2. If New Jersey was smart and didn’t overpay Vince Carter to re-sign with them (unlikely), they would be best off looking for a shooting guard; even with Carter coming back, they’d still probably benefit most from a 2/3 type. Jason Kidd is the oldest of their three stars, but Kidd has a potentially good backup in Marcus Williams, taken last year. Richard Jefferson is the youngest, but also the least valuable and most likely to be traded. The Nets are in an uncomfortable position where they’re likely to be reasonably good over the next few years without ever achieving greatness, and that seems unlikely to change no matter who they pick here or who they trade for. Given those parameters and their apparent needs, Julian Wright seems like the best fit here. Other potentially good choices would be Jason Smith of Colorado State or possibly Derrick Byars of Vanderbilt, but Wright has the best long-term potential and size of the three.

The pick: Julian Wright

18. Golden State
Needs: C, bench
Could upgrade: PF, SF (?)

The fact that Golden State is running Nellieball makes determining their needs slightly more complicated than usual. They’re clearly in need of some competent size to complement Andris Biedrins, but there’s not much out there that fits. They’ll probably lose Matt Barnes in free agency, but that doesn’t seem like it should be a big deal. A guard rotation of Baron Davis, Monta Ellis, Jason Richardson, and Stephen Jackson is hard to find fault with. This is a good team, and a fun one – whoever they pick needs to be athletic enough to complement not one, but both of those traits. There are two picks available that potentially fit here; Thaddeus Young of Georgia Tech and Jason Smith of Colorado State. Young, by all accounts, has the potential to be a star, but as with his freshman teammate Crittendon, I see him as having a high bust potential too. Ordinarily, the #18 pick would be a great place to take a risk on a potential star player, but when there are other good options out there, the risk may not actually be worth it. Jason Smith is born to play in Nellie’s system. He’s not a traditional center, despite being a 7’ shot-blocker, but he’s athletic, fast, and has a good outside shot – something like a cross between Mehmet Okur and Marcus Camby, without necessarily being as good as either. On a team that didn’t know how to use him, Smith’s talents would be wasted – but Nelson’s a great coach for unusual talents.

The pick: Jason Smith

19. L.A. Lakers
Needs: PF, bench
Could upgrade: PG

Obviously, the team needs here are going to change if Kobe Bryant gets traded for 2/3 of the good players on Chicago, but I don’t see that happening. The Lakers are in an uncomfortable place, where they have neither the assets to rebuild or win anything. It’s not quite Kobe and the 11 dwarfs, as Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum, and Luke Walton have some value, but this team isn’t getting much offense that doesn’t come from Kobe one way or another. Jordan Farmar might turn into a decent point guard, although he isn’t there yet; Andrew Bynum will be a good center, and he’s pretty close, and then there’s a lot of filler material. In particular, the PF spot is weak, with the options being Odom out of position, Brian Cook, and Ronny Turiaf. The Lakers also have no decent backup guards, unless Farmar is counted as the backup of Smush Parker, in which case the Lakers need a better point guard as well. At this point in the draft, we’re out of good options. Thaddeus Young is the most highly regarded prospect on the board, but has a lot of developing to do or not do, and plays the same position as Odom and Walton. The inside options do not represent a clear upgrade from Cook, Turiaf, or the pair of stiffs on the bench (Kwame Brown and Chris Mihm) – even Kwame Brown has to be better than Josh McRoberts. Besides McRoberts, the big guys worthy of consideration are Marc Gasol (in Spain, will require some adjustment, looked slow and uncoordinated in his last trip over), Aaron Gray (Chris Mihm 2.0), Sean Williams (Puff puff pass), and an assortment of other suspect talents (mostly unknown Slavs, but we can include Kyle Visser, Herbert Hill, Jermareo Davidson, and Nick Fazekas here as well). The best guards available are probably Morris Almond of Rice (a tall relative unknown), Daequan Cook of Ohio State (probably a year or two away from contributing much), Marco Belinelli of Italy, and Arron Afflalo of UCLA. From this pile of shitty options, I give the Lakers Afflalo. I don’t expect him to do very well at the NBA level – he’s a poor man’s Dennis Scott at best, without the self-portrait tattoos – but he is from LA and played with Farmar, which may be worth something. This isn’t a great pick, but I can’t see the Lakers drafting any of the big guys, and Afflalo is probably the most ready to contribute next year of the shooting guards on the board.

The pick: Arron Afflalo

20. Miami
Needs: Youth, depth, PG
Could upgrade: Most positions other than SG and C could be improved, but not at this point in the draft.

Without Dwyane Wade, Miami is old and not very good. With him, they’re old and mediocre. The best plan here is probably to take the best player available and wait for the rest of the team to retire. The best choices left on the board who don’t play the same position as Wade are probably Thaddeus Young and Derrick Byars; Young will give the Heat a better chance of getting a good draft pick next year by being slow to develop, and probably has slightly more potential. He’ll do.

The pick: Thaddeus Young

21. Philadelphia
Needs: See above
Could upgrade: See above

Philadelphia is at this point looking for size, so they’re left picking between Gasol, McRoberts, Gray, and Sean Williams. Interestingly enough, they already have two of these players on their team: Sam Dalembert is a slightly larger and less criminally inclined Sean Williams, and Shavlik Randolph is Josh McRoberts’s older and marginally less skilled brother. I think that Marc Gasol is probably the better pick, but the Sixers like big soft white guys from Duke, so they’ll take McRoberts.

The pick: Josh McRoberts

22. Charlotte
Needs: See above
Could upgrade: See above

With their second pick, Charlotte should be looking for a shooting guard. Of the available choices, Marco Belinelli is coming off a disappointing year in the Italian league and faces some transitional issues, Daequan Cook is young, streaky, and probably a couple of years away from reaching his full potential (which could be good, or might not be. Hard to say.), and Morris Almond has spent his college career playing on an inferior team against inferior competition. All three are difficult to project, but I think that Almond’s the most likely to be successful. The Bobcats have had a tendency to pick players from winning teams, so we might expect them to lean towards Cook, but he was basically a non-factor in the tournament last year – so he doesn’t get any points over Almond for that.

The pick: Morris Almond

23. New York
Needs: SF
Could upgrade: SG, PG, bench

The Knicks have a large number of talented but flawed players; a team whose roster looks a lot better on paper than it actually is. The roster is a mixture of overrated veterans (Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis, Quentin Richardson, etc), not-very-good veterans (Jamal Crawford, Jerome James, Jared Jeffries, Malik Rose, Kelvin Cato), and young players who would make a great bench team if the people in front of them were better (Channing Frye, Renaldo Balkman, David Lee, etc). With the personnel they have, the Knicks are unlikely to get much better or worse until the dead weight at the top of the roster leaves, retires, or gets bought out of their contracts by an increasingly frustrated James Dolan. They could also be traded for more overrated players with bad contracts, which has been Isiah Thomas’s strategy for years, but we’ve seen how well that works. The position most likely to need help in the near future is SF or SG, but whoever gets drafted is going to be buried for at least a year behind the pile of damaged goods above. The logical pick here would be Daequan Cook, but the rumor mill has the Knicks drafting Wilson Chandler of DePaul, a talented but not-yet-achieving small forward. The Knicks surprised everyone by taking Renaldo Balkman last year around this slot, so the rumors are credible.

The pick: Wilson Chandler

24. Phoenix
Needs: Bench
Could upgrade: Backup PG, C, SF

Phoenix seems likely to make a trade, which may change their needs substantially – but they’re still likely to focus on drafting the most athletic, versatile player available. While he hasn’t gotten a lot of national attention leading up to the draft, Boston College’s Jared Dudley seems like an ideal fit for the Phoenix system. Dudley had more of a power game in college than his frame seems likely to allow in the pros, but he showed a much more versatile skill set last year. It’s also worth mentioning that his former teammate Craig Smith was similarly undervalued, and Smith had a very promising first year with Minnesota. I’m willing to bet that Dudley has a better career than many of the people taken ahead of him.

The pick: Jared Dudley

25. Utah
Needs: SG
Could upgrade: Backup C

Utah is a very good team that’s going to improve next year regardless of who they draft, but their one weak spot is SG. They had clearly the best draft of any team last year with Deron Williams and Paul Millsap in the second round, but their second pick of the first round, Ronnie Brewer, didn’t play very much. While he may still have potential that we haven’t seen yet, the largest hole on the Utah roster is at SG/SF, and they’d ideally take someone who could help right away. The best available shooting guard is probably Daequan Cook, but I doubt that he and Jerry Sloan would have much in common – a better pick might be Wisconsin’s Alando Tucker. Tucker has been criticized for not having a position at the NBA level – as a 6’5 forward who gets most of his points within 15 feet, he’ll have a hard time scoring in the same way – but he is a good defender and passer, and with Okur shooting from the outside, Utah’s offense has room for an unconventional player like Tucker.

The pick: Alando Tucker

26. Houston
Needs: PF
Could upgrade: Backup C, bench

Houston traded Juwan Howard to Minnesota for Mike James, which may reduce their dependence on Rafer Alston, but which opens a pretty large hole at an already weak PF position. Due to their dependence on Yao Ming, the Rockets are stuck playing a slow style (why’d they fire Jeff Van Gundy again?), so they’re not necessarily going to need a really athletic power forward. Nevada’s Nick Fazekas is a great pure shooter at 6’11, but may be the slowest player in the draft – he’d be a great asset to a slow team and totally useless to an athletic one. Fazekas will probably be available in the second round, but the Rockets don’t have a second-round pick this year, so I’m giving him to them now under bubble world rules.

The pick: Nick Fazekas

27. Detroit
Needs: See above
Could upgrade: See above

Having gone for Rodney Stuckey with their earlier pick, the Pistons should look for some inside help with the second. With the departure of Ben Wallace last year, the Pistons lost a lot of their athleticism inside; Cleveland exposed this repeatedly in the Eastern Conference finals. One possible replacement for Wallace is Sean Williams, formerly of Boston College, who has a game similar to Marcus Camby’s and a nose for trouble that should make him perfectly at home in Detroit.

The pick: Sean Williams

28. San Antonio
Needs: Backup PG
Could upgrade: Bench

The Spurs, more than any other team, are likely to look overseas for an undervalued player, and there are two available here who might be useful to them. San Antonio lacks a quality center when Tim Duncan is playing power forward, so they might look at Marc Gasol; they also don’t seem to have gotten much out of Beno Udrih, their backup point guard. As the three-headed homunculus of Fabricio Oberto (a one-headed homunculus), Francisco Elson, and Jackie Butler aren’t defensive liabilities, backup point guard is probably the more pressing need. While the Spurs could take an American point guard like Oregon’s Aaron Brooks or Nevada’s Ramon Sessions, there’s a young Finnish point guard named Petteri Koponen who’s likely to stay in Europe for another year or so. He’d be a good addition to the Spurs’ tradition of stashing picks overseas.

The pick: Petteri Koponen

29. Phoenix
Needs: See above
Could upgrade: see above

The Suns probably don’t have a very long window to win a championship before Steve Nash’s back gives out, so they traded for Marcus Banks last year to productively use some his minutes. That didn’t work out so well, so they’re likely to take a backup PG at some point in this draft. Oregon’s Aaron Brooks probably isn’t big enough or a consistent enough shooter to start in the league, but he’s experienced enough to be a capable backup. Another possible pick might be Spain’s Rudy Fernandez, who is more of a tall, skinny combo guard. Fernandez’s athleticism would make him a good fit in the Phoenix system, and he’s a better shooter than Brooks.

The pick: Rudy Fernandez

30. Philadelphia
Needs: See above
Could upgrade: see above

The Sixers should go for more size here, and could take either Marc Gasol or Pittsburgh’s Aaron Gray. They have an early second-round pick, and could end up getting both – so Gasol’s a better pick, as he’s less likely to be around later. While neither of these two are going to be stars, the center for the Sixers during their last good year was Todd MacCulloch – they’re used to mediocrity from their big guys.

The pick: Marc Gasol

Seattle: Aaron Brooks
Boston: Gabe Pruitt
San Antonio: Derrick Byars
Dallas: Aaron Gray
Seattle: Ramon Sessions
Golden State: Daequan Cook
Portland: Reyshawn Terry
Philadelphia: Kyle Visser
Miami: Taurean Green
L.A. Lakers: Marcus Williams
Minnesota: Marco Belinelli
Portland: Carl Landry
New Orleans: Demetris Nichols
Orlando: Kyrylo Fesenko
L.A. Clippers: Glen Davis
Golden State: Dominic McGuire
Washington: Jermareo Davidson
L.A. Lakers: Herbert Hill
Chicago: Ionut Dragusin
Dallas: Ali Traore
Chicago: Quinton Hosley
Portland: DJ Strawberry
Portland: Ron Lewis
Orlando: Coleman Collins
Utah: Ivan Radenovic
Milwaukee: Marko Tomas
Detroit: Renaldas Seibutis
San Antonio: Stephane Lasme
Phoenix: Zabian Dowdell
Dallas: Zoran Erceg